It’s already too late!

It’s already too late!

Sociology professor Tsai Hung-cheng at Chungshan University in Taiwan says:  “It is already too late to begin having babies right now!” to salvage the population precipice in the next ten years in Taiwan, and Taiwan must open up to welcome immigrants and increase its “social population” to make up for the population precipice caused by the shortage of its natural population.

He says that this precipice of Taiwan’s drastic population decline in the next ten years will negatively impact Taiwan’s colleges and universities, Taiwan’s future housing market and construction industry, Taiwan’s labor force, Taiwan’s military and self defense capacity, and Taiwan’s senior long term care.  He says these declines will be the result of Taiwan’s dire population precipice in the next 10 years.

He did some simple calculations to illustrate his dire warnings.

In 1994, 300,000 babies were born in Taiwan.  At 18 years old in 2012, they would have entered college.  From 2000 to 2008, Taiwan under the two-term administration of former Democratic Progressive Party’s president Chen Shui-bian, too many universities and colleges were built without taking into consideration the possible decline in the future size of the college aged population.  In 1993, Taiwan had 21 universities.  In 2017, there are 157 of them.  This is a 7.476-fold increase.  In 2017, there are 1,230,000 college aged people 18-21 years old.   By 2028, there will be 770,000 of them, a decline of -37.398%.

Taiwan will begin an all voluntary military service in 2018.  In 2017, the estimated number of volunteer recruits is 15,000, but in the first half of 2017, only 4,300 signed up.  Taiwan’s voluntary military service recruitment ages are between 18 and 32 years old.  In 2000, there were 5,700,000 people between those ages.  In 2017, there are only 4,700,000 of them.  By 2027, there will be 3,700,000 of them.  In 27 years from 2000 to 2027, Taiwan’s available population for military service will have declined by -35%.

In 2000, Taiwan had 3,700,000 to 3,900,000 adults between 35 and 45 years old.  In 30 years up to 2030, there will be 3,200,000 of them.  This is a decline in Taiwan’s core blue collar labor force and white collar work force by -13.5135% to -17.9487%.

In 2016, there were 890,000 seniors between 76 and 85 years old.  In 30 years up to 2030, there will be 1,600,000 of them.

In 2017, there are about 3,000,000 seniors older than 65 years of age.  Among them, 410,000 are physically handicapped and dysfunctional and mentally dysfunctional who require long term care.  By 2027, the population of physically and mentally dysfunctional seniors will be 780,000 people.  This is a +90.2439% increase!

It is already too late to make babies like crazy every night now to avoid the population precipice in the next 10 years!

 

 

 

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About masterchensays

Victor Chen, herbalist, alternative healthcare lecturer, Chinese affairs analyst, retired journalist
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