Negative population growth in South Korea and in Taiwan

Negative population growth in South Korea and in Taiwan

Taiwanese authorities estimate that negative growth of the Taiwanese population will begin in 2022.  In 2018, there are already 7 counties and a city i Taiwan that have already begun a negative population growth.  On August 30, 2018, Taiwan’s National Development Council announced that a negative growth of the Taiwanese population is estimated to begin in 2022.  By 2026, senior Taiwanese will constitute 20% of the total population.

In March 2016, the number of deaths was 257 more than the number of newborns. And in February 2018, there were 1,025 more deaths than births.

Since 2008, negative population growth has occurred in Keelung city, Nantou county, Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Pingtung county, Taitung county, and Hualie county.  The number of births in these counties and city have been less than the number of deaths.

Taiwan’s general birthrate in 2013 was 1.06 (birth per female), 1.16 in 2014, 1.17 in 2015, 1.17 in 2016, and 1.12 in 2017.  However, the birthrate in Keelung city in 2013 was 0.79, 0.8 in 2014, 0.95 in 2015, 0.98 in 2016, and 0.89 in 2017.  In Chiayi county, the birthrate was 0.83 in 2013, 0.85 in 2014, 0.88 in 2015, 0.87 in 2016, and 0.87 in 2017.  In Pingtung county, the birthrate was 0.82 in 2013, 0.89 in 2014, 0.90 i 2015, 0.88 in 2016, and 0.86 in 2017.

In Taiwan, the percentage of those 20-29 years old who were unmarried in 1997 was 36.2%, and 57.2% in 2017.  The average age of first marriage among women was 28.1 years old in 1997 and 30 years old in 2017.

In 2016, Taiwan’s birthrate was 1.17, 1.13 in 2017, and an estimated 1.09 in 2018.

In Seoul, South Korea, the birthrate is 0.84.

By 2750, it is predicted, South Koreans as a population will no longer exist.  More deaths than births will continue in South Korea from now until then.  Adding to this possible outcome are the trend among young South Koreans to “give up on love”, “give up on marriage,” “give up on having children”, “give up relationships”, “give up buying a home”< “give up one’s ambitions”, and “give up one’s hopes”.

In the second quarter of 2018, the birthrate in South Korea was 0.97 while that in Japan was 1.36 and that in Hong Kong is 1.19.

In 2018, the estimated number of newborns in South Korea is 330,000, or 0.6% of south Korea’s total population of 51,250,000.  In 2018, the estimated number of newborns in Taiwan 180,000, or 0.78% of Taiwan’s total population of 23,570,000.




About masterchensays

Victor Chen, herbalist, alternative healthcare lecturer, Chinese affairs analyst, retired journalist
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